[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 4 10:04:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was quiet over the UT
day with fluctuations in the Bz component of less than 5nT. Solar
wind speed declined further to be near 500km/s at the time of
reporting. Expect continuing quiet IMF and solar wind conditions
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22221211
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 4 11211121
Camden 5 22221211
Canberra 5 22221201
Hobart 6 22231201
Casey(Ant) 7 3--22211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 3 Quiet
06 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours. Isolated Active periods were observed
at high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar -5 depressed to 20% / near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 3 March
and is current for interval 3-4 March. Mostly normal HF conditions
were observed during the last 24 hours across the Australian
region, although some MUF depressions up to 20% were again observed
in Equatorial and N.Aus regions during the local day. Antarctic
regions experienced some disturbed HF conditions due to continuing
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions expected for all
regions for the next 3 days. Equatorial and N.Aus regions may
experience further MUF depressions up to 20% during the local
day 04 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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