[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 29 09:43:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours. Due to the diminishing effect of a recurrent
coronal hole the solar wind stream showed signs of gradual
weakening today. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 620 to 580 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magentic field (Bz) showed
minor (upto around +/- 4 nT) fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value, staying mostly negative between 0300 and
2000UT. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken on
29 June due to an expected continued weakening of the coronal
hole effect. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Mostly quiet.
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 12122221
Darwin 4 12121211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 22123322
Camden 5 11122221
Canberra 5 11122221
Hobart 5 11122221
Casey(Ant) 9 232223-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
30 Jun 5 Quiet
01 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions declined to quiet levels on
most locations today with some unsettled periods. The activity
levels is expected to further decline as the coronal hole
effect weakens further. Mostly quiet periods are expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of unsettled periods
on 29 June, especially at high latitude locations.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs on some low and mid
latitude locations and minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions on high latitude stations were observed
on 28 June. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of some
enhancement and periods of minor to significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 2 near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 4 near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions around Aus/NZ regions are expected
to remain mostly normal during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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