[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 30 09:45:48 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the last
24 hours and the disc is spotless. The recurrent coronal hole
effect is weakening and solar wind speed varied between 460 and
500 km/s but is gradually weakening. IMF Bz oscillated north-south
within +/-5nT with only one extended southward period of reasonable
field strength at 18-22UT. Solar wind stream is expected to further
weaken over the coming day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 5 22221--1
Townsville 7 22232--1
Learmonth 6 22220123
Camden 4 12120122
Canberra 4 12120122
Hobart 5 12121122
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2212 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 5 Quiet
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and
equatorial latitudes with very occasional Unsettled periods at
equatorial sites. Polar region was Unsettled to Active with auroral
oval showing Minor to Major Storm near 20-24UT due to extended
IMF Bz at 18-22UT. Activity expected to further decline as the
coronal hole effect weaken over the coming day and solar-wind
speeds decrease further.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
01 Jul 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
02 Jul 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australasian region HF conditions were mostly normal
in terms of MUF in the last 24h, albeit with daytime depressions
for the Equatorial and western Pacific. Spread-F was prevalent
at many sites, possibly degrading propagation quality. T-index
remains slightly below predicted monthly average and expected
to remain so for the next few days as geomagnetic activity subsides
and the absence of sunspots with ionising EUV radiation. Antarctic
ionosphere was strongly enhanced in MUF, probably due to, the
weak background ionosphere during nil sunlight in winter, the
enhanced convection due to coronal hole high-speed solar-wind
stream drawing in ionisation from sunlit areas equatorward into
the polar cap.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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