[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 28 09:33:40 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours. Due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole
the solar wind remained strenthened throughout the UT day
today. The solar wind speed stayed between 600 and 650 km/s
for most part of the day and dropped down to 580 km/s around
2000UT and stayed at that level until the time of this report
(2300UT). The north-south component of the interplanetary
magentic field (Bz) showed minor (upto around +/- 4 nT)
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value, staying positive
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar wind stream is
expected to remain strong on 28 and possibly 29 June due to
the continued effect of the coronal hole. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 33232321
Darwin 8 32232221
Townsville 11 33322322
Learmonth 10 33232321
Camden 8 32232211
Canberra 9 32232311
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 9 33322-21
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 4424 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled with some chance
of isolated active periods.
29 Jun 6 Quiet to unsettled
30 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On 27 June, the geomagnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels on most locations with some
active periods on high-latitude locations due to the effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole. The effect of this coronal hole may result in some
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 28 and possibly
29 June, especially at high latitude locations.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs were observed during the
local day time on some low to mid latitude stations on 27 June.
Some degradations in HF conditions were observed on high latitudes
on 27 June. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with the possibility
of some degradations and depressions on high and mid latitude
locations on 28 June due to an expected continued enhancement
in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with minor
to significant depressions during local
day time.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of enhanced
MUFs and some periods of minor to significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 3 near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 4 near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions around Aus/NZ regions are expected
to remain mostly normal during the next three days with some
possibility of isolated minor degradations, especially in the
southern Aus/NZ regions on 28 June due to an expected continued
rise in the geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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