[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 10 09:45:40 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next few days. Solar 
wind velocity declined from 450km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s at 
the time of this report. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               2   21011011
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   11001011
      Hobart               3   11122011
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3221 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     4    Quiet 
11 Jun     4    Quiet 
12 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the 
solar wind velocity is expected to continue to decline. No
geoeffective coronal holes are expected for this forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair          
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair          
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar for 
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions but with depressed MUFs 
during local day. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Similar conditions are expected for all 
regions over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    95200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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