[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:39:29 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days and 
new region 998 is not expected to be the source of any notable 
flare activity. Solar wind velocity declined from 400km/s at 
0000UT to be 380km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between 
+4/-3nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11112111
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               1   10011000
      Canberra             1   01011000
      Hobart               1   10011001
      Casey(Ant)           3   12111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2101 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     5    Quiet 
12 Jun     5    Quiet 
13 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the 
solar wind paramters remain low. No geoeffective coronal holes 
are expected for this forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
12 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
13 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun     0    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUF's during 
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but 
with continued depressed conditions during local day. Disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    65100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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