[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 6 09:29:10 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               68/2

COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed is 
approximately 370 km/s at present. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111001
      Darwin               3   12011111
      Townsville           5   22221112
      Learmonth            1   20110000
      Camden               1   11011000
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               3   30021000
      Casey(Ant)           3   21111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2110 1102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     7    Quiet 
07 Jun    12    Unsettled 
08 Jun     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field may become unsettled late today 
due to a coronal hole wind stream. This activity is expected 
to persist on the 7th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jun    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 50% at
      Vanimo 02-11 UT and to 30% at Niue 03, 21-22 UT. Night
      spread F observed at Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
      to 30%, particularly at Darwin. Night spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
      to 25% at Canberra, Hobart and Learmonth. Enhancements
      to 30% at Christchurch 11-18 UT. Night spread F
      observed at Christchurch, Hobart and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40%
      at Casey and Mawson 04-08 UT. Spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible. Night spread 
F may continue to form and degrade night communications. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    56000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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