[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 5 09:29:02 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               66/0

COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. The solar wind 
speed has declined from about 490 to 410 km/s over the last 24 
hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111101
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           6   22212212
      Learmonth            2   12211000
      Camden               1   11101001
      Canberra             1   01101001
      Hobart               2   11111001
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     5    Quiet 
06 Jun     7    Quiet 
07 Jun    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field may become unsettled late on the 
6 June due to a coronal hole wind stream. This activity is expected 
to persist on the 7th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jun    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-45% at
      Vanimo 02-14 UT. Night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Darwin 02-04 and 19-21 UT. Night spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 30% 12-18
      UT at Christchurch. Night spread F observed at
      Christchurch, Learmonth and Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data for Casey and Mawson since 05 UT. Near
      predicted monthly values at Scott Base with spread F
      observed throughout the reporting period.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night spread F may continue to form and degrade night 
communications. Occasional depressions to 30% possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    87000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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