[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 2 09:50:48 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speeds 
ranged from approximately 540 km/s up to 640 km/s during the 
past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream 
and are presently approximately 620 km/s. Solar wind speeds are 
expected to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232211
      Darwin               5   2212221-
      Townsville           9   23322-1-
      Learmonth            8   22232312
      Camden               6   22132211
      Canberra             6   22132210
      Hobart               7   22132221
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            20   (Quiet)
      Camden              51   (Unsettled)
      Gnangara            97   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1222 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance 
                of isolated active periods and minor storm levels 
                at high latitudes. 
03 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels have been observed 
across the Australian region during the past 24 hours with isolated 
active to storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels are expected for the next two days with isolated active 
and storm levels possible at high latitudes for 2 June due to 
the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Geomagnetic 
activity should be at mostly quiet levels for 4 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
03 Jun     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
04 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 5-15% were observed at times 
across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected for the next few days with isolated depressions 
of 5-15% possible at times. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions 
were observed at times at most stations across the Aus/NZ region 
during the past 24 hours and are possible at times during the 
next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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