[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 09:35:08 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speed 
has declined from about 630 km/s to currently around 520 km/s 
over the past 24 hours. A coronal mass ejection was observed 
from the east limb late 1st/early 2nd June. This CME is not
expected to be geo-effective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   22111221
      Camden               2   12101110
      Canberra             2   12001110
      Hobart               4   12111211
      Casey(Ant)           7   23221222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2211 2323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun     5    Quiet 
04 Jun     5    Quiet 
05 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Active levels have been observed at high latitudes over 
the last 24 hours. Isolated unsettled to active levels possible 
at high latitudes over the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jun     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions to
      20%. Depressions to 60% observed at Vanimo 10-13 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night spread F observed at all latitudes. Sporadic E 
observed at lower latitudes during the daytime.
Spread F expected to continue for 3 June and may degrade
night communications. Occasional depressions to 25% possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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