[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 1 09:40:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disk is presently spotless. Solar wind speeds
ranged from approximately 540 km/s up to 680 km/s during the
past 24 hours under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream
and are presently approximately 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are
expected to remain mildly elevated over the next 24 hours and
then decline slowly over the following days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 8 12233222
Darwin 8 22233212
Townsville 10 22333222
Learmonth 12 12344222
Camden 6 11233111
Canberra 7 11233112
Hobart 7 11233112
Casey(Ant) 12 23333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 20 (Quiet)
Camden 61 (Active)
Gnangara 80 (Active)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4101 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the small chance
of isolated active periods and storm levels at
high latitudes.
02 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
03 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels have been observed
across the Australian region during the past 24 hours with isolated
active to storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for the next few days with isolated active
and storm levels possible at high latitudes for 1 June due to
the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 5-15% were observed at times
across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the past 24 hours. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for the next few days with isolated depressions
of 5-15% possible at times. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed at times at most stations across the Aus/NZ region
during 31 May and are possible at times during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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