[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 25 09:36:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind velocity declined from a maximum of 650km/s at 0230UT to
be ~450km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the UT day with some notable southward periods. Solar
wind velocity will continue to decline over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22322111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 9 32322222
Learmonth 5 22222111
Camden 7 22332110
Canberra 7 22332110
Hobart 7 22332111
Casey(Ant) 8 33222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3432 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected the next 2
days, with Quiet conditions for 27Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with some sporadic E, normal conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ regions with continued enhancements
during local night. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
with mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions
26Jul-27Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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