[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 24 09:47:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind velocity remains elevated at ~650km/s. Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT over the UT day. Solar wind parameters are expected to
begin to decline over the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 23334321
Darwin 12 23324321
Townsville 17 34334332
Learmonth 13 23324331
Camden 12 23324321
Canberra 14 33334321
Hobart 13 23334321
Casey(Ant) 15 34333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Camden 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 67 (Active)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 1122 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 12 Unsettled
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next
24 hours, with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 25Jul-26Jul
as the current coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with continued sporadic E effects over
the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions observed during local
night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support at times for Antarctic regions. Similar MUF depressions
ranging between 10%~20% possible for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions for the next 2 days - with continued disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected for all regions 26Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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