[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 23 09:38:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind velocity increased from ~375km/s at 0000UT to be 600km/s
at the time of this report. Solar wind parameters indicated the
arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent
coronal hole, as Bz increased in magnitude to fluctuate between
+/-10nT during the middle of the UT day. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain at elevated levels for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 11222232
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 12 12333333
Learmonth - --------
Camden 6 01122232
Canberra 6 01122232
Hobart 5 00122232
Casey(Ant) 7 122232-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1122 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 12 Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. With the arrival of the high speed solar wind
stream from the recurrent coronal hole, mostly Unsettled conditions
are expected for the 23Jul with isolated Active periods possible.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 24Jul-25Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with continued sporadic E effects for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions observed during local night for
Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support at
times for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions over the next 2 days, with
MUF depressions 10%~20% possible for Southern AUS/NZ and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected for all regions 25Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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