[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 22 09:52:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind parameters began to increase as a recurrent coronal hole
is moving into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed increased
from 300km/s at 0000UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report,
and is expected to continue to rise in the next 24 hours. Bz
ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 11 3-2-----
Camden 4 11221111
Canberra 3 01221111
Hobart 3 01221111
Casey(Ant) 7 22232211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 46 (Unsettled)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
An expected increase due to a recurrent coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position will see Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 22Jul, Unsettled to Active conditions for 23Jul and then
mostly Unsettled conditions for 24Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with continued sporadic E effects on Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions observed during local night for
Southern AUS/NZ regions and some disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
MUF depressions of 10%~20% possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions
23Jul-24Jul and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions due
to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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