[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 26 09:42:25 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind velocity continues to decline, from 480km/s at 0000UT to
be ~380km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT
over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11121001
Darwin 3 12111011
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 2 11120000
Camden 1 11020000
Canberra 1 01020000
Hobart 1 01021000
Casey(Ant) 5 12222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4332 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 6 Quiet
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed periods during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions with some notable sporadic E. Normal conditions for Southern
AUS/NZ regions with continued enhancements during local night.
Ionospheric support for Antarctic regions ranged between normal
and poor. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with very low solar activity having diminished ionospheric influence.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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