[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 16 09:41:48 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over 
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole kept the solar wind stream strengthened keeping solar 
wind speed between 550 and 650 km/s with a declining trend 
almost the whole today. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-3nT 
over most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32231112
      Darwin               5   22121112
      Townsville           9   32232222
      Learmonth            8   33321112
      Camden               4   22221011
      Canberra             6   32231011
      Hobart               5   22231011
      Casey(Ant)           9   33232122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Camden              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2233 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     7    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours due to the high speed solar wind stream 
from the current geoeffective coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 
16 July. The conditions are then expected to gradually decline 
to mostly quiet with some possibility of unsettled conditions 
on 17 July and quiet conditions on 18 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions 
were observed on low latitudes during the last 24 hours, 
especially during the local day times, possibly due to a 
weak ionosphere as the solar activity continues to stay 
at very low levels.  Mid-latidute circuits remained less 
affected by this phenomenon and the conditions remained 
mostly normal, but the high latitudes showed minor to 
significant degradations in conditions for extended periods 
of time today. Besides very low solar activity, a continued 
enhancement in the geomagnetic actvity levels on 15 July 
seems to have played a role in the degradation of HF conditions 
on high latitudes. Similar conditions may be expected on 
16 July with some improvement possible on high latitudes 
from 17 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of enhancements and minor to significant
      degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the 
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions, with Southern 
AUS/NZ regions experiencing enhanced conditions during local 
night. Similar conditions may be expected for this region 
for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 675 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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