[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 15 09:40:15 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over 
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole kept the solar wind stream strengthened keeping solar 
wind speed between 650 and 700 km/s almost the whole today. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT over the entire UT day. 
Solar wind velocity is expected to remain at elevated levels 
for the the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with some active periods. 

Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332222
      Darwin               6   12322211
      Townsville          10   22332223
      Learmonth           14   33433312
      Camden               8   12332212
      Canberra            10   12432222
      Hobart              10   22432222
      Casey(Ant)          12   23333--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           46   (Unsettled)
      Alice_Springs       19   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Camden              59   (Unsettled)
      Gnangara            84   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            69   (Active)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   2233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
16 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours due to the high speed solar wind 
stream from the current geoeffective coronal hole. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels with isolated active periods on 15 July. The conditions 
are then expected to gradually decline to mostly quiet to 
unsettled on 16 and mostly quiet on 17 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
16 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations and MUF depressions 
were observed on low latitudes during the last 24 hours, 
expecially during the local day times, possibly due to a 
weak ionosphere as the solar activity continues to stay at 
very low levels. Mid-latitude circuits remaied less affected 
by this phenomenon but the high latitudes showed minor to 
significant degradations in conditions for extended periods 
of time today. Besides very low solar activity, an enhancement 
in the geomagnetic actvity levels on 14 July seems to have 
played a role in the degradation of HF conditions on high 
latitudes. Similar conditions may be expected for the next 
2 days with some improvement possible on high latitudes on 
the 3rd day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of enhancements and depressions observed with
      minor to significant degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
16 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the 
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions, with Southern 
AUS/NZ regions experiencing enhanced conditions during local 
night. Similar conditions may be expected for this region 
for the next 3 days, but with possible depressed MUF's of 
5%-10% for Southern AUS/NZ regions on 15 and possibly 16 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 657 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list