[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:40:40 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over 
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal 
hole is weakening now as the solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decline from 580 to 520 km/s during the UT day today. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
fluctuated between +/-2nT over most parts of the UT day today. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 
the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Mostly quiet with some
isolated unsettled periods. 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211211
      Darwin               4   12211211
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth           10   34311212
      Camden               4   12211111
      Canberra             4   12211211
      Hobart               4   02211211
      Casey(Ant)           7   23221222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3222 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     5    Quiet 
18 Jul     5    Quiet 
19 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions have been 
observed during the 24 hours with some isolated unsettled 
periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet levels for the next 3 days as the coronal hole 
effect further weakens through this period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions 
were observed at times on low latitudes during the last 
24 hours, possibly due to a weak ionosphere as the solar 
activity continues to stay at very low levels. Mid-latidute 
circuits remained less affected by this phenomenon and the 
conditions remained mostly normal, but the high latitudes 
showed minor to significant degradations in conditions for 
extended periods of time today. Besides very low solar 
activity, a continued enhancement in the geomagnetic actvity 
levels on 16 July seems to have played a role in the degradation 
of HF conditions on high latitudes. Slightly better conditions 
may be expected on high latitudes for the next 3 days as the 
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at lower level through 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during local
      night. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of minor to significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul     1    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul     1    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul     1    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the 
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions. Similar 
conditions may be expected for this region for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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