[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 9 09:55:15 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the 
last 24 hours as the disc remains spotless. The average solar 
wind speed declined from 330km/s to be ~310kms at the time of 
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-2n over the UT day. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 
3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            2   10210001
      Camden               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
      Casey(Ant)           3   21111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     5    Quiet 
10 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours 
after which there will be an expected increase in activity due 
to a recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions on 
09Jul with possible isolated Minor Storm periods on 10Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
10 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Jul    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last 
24 hours. Both Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced 
depressed MUFs during local day. Northern AUS and Equatorial 
regions experienced disturbed conditions between 1600-2100UT 
while there was enhanced ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions during local night. Continued disturbed conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected over the 
next 2 days. An expected increase in geomagnetic activity on 
09Jul could bring possible MUF depressions ~20% for Southern 
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    42600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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