[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 08
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 9 09:55:33 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours as the disc remains spotless. The average solar
wind speed declined from 330km/s to be ~310kms at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-2n over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 2 10210001
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 3 21111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
11 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours
after which there will be an expected increase in activity due
to a recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions on
09Jul with possible isolated Minor Storm periods on 10Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours. Both Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced
depressed MUFs during local day. Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions experienced disturbed conditions between 1600-2100UT
while there was enhanced ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
regions during local night. Continued disturbed conditions for
Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected over the
next 2 days. An expected increase in geomagnetic activity on
09Jul could bring possible MUF depressions ~20% for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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