[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 8 09:39:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours as the disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed
declined from 370km/s to be ~330km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) ranged between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 11000001
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 4 22021012
Casey(Ant) 3 12210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2120 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for 08Jul-09Jul, after
which there will be an expected increase in activity due to a
recurrent coronal hole on 10Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most mid latitude
stations and mostly normal to fair on low and high latitudes.
Minor to moderated depressions in MUFs and minor to significant
degradations in HF conditions were observed at times on low and
high latitude stations possibly due to continued very low solar
activity. Spread F and sporadic E were also noticed on some low
latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric variations
are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions had depressed MUFs
during local day, while Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced enhanced
conditions during local night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar HF conditions in each region are expected for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 58000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list