[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 26 10:18:29 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low 
levels today as well. Due to a high speed solar wind 
stream the solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to 
550 km/s during the first 3 hours of the UT day today 
and then remained between 500 and 550 km/s during the 
rest of the day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the 
normal value almost the whole day with some minor to 
mild fluctuations (upto around +/-5nT) on both sides 
of the normal value between 0000UT and 0900UT. Solar 
disc remains currently spotless and solar activity is 
expected to continue to stay at very low levels for 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23321122
      Darwin               7   32221122
      Townsville          11   23332232
      Learmonth           10   33321132
      Camden               8   23321122
      Canberra             8   23321122
      Hobart               9   23421122
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---32132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1121 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
27 Jan     5    Quiet 
28 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated periods of slightly enhanced geomagnetic 
activity levels were observed today at some stations due to 
a high speed solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three 
days with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 
26 January as the solar wind speed is still relatively high 
around 500 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporatic E layers were observed at 
several low and mid latitude stations mainly during the 
local day time today. Relatively weaker sporadic E-layers 
were also observed on high latitudes around the same time. 
These Es layers sometimes partly and sometimes fully 
blanketed the F-regions and caused communication difficulties 
using F-regions. Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions 
were observed on low latitudes during the local day today, 
possibly due to a weak ionosphere. This behaviour of the 
ionosphere may show up at times for the next few days, 
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Jan    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day
      with periods of depressions, 
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of degraded conditions. 

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    -4    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
27 Jan    -3    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan    -3    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were 
observed across many stations in Aus/NZ regions, caused 
communication difficulties using F-regions today mainly 
during the local day hours. HF conditions are expected to 
remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three days with the possibility of minor to mild depressions 
at times on 26 January. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    91600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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