[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 25 10:30:25 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low 
levels today as well. The solar wind speed remained between 
400 and 440 km/s for most part of the UT day today. The north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
stayed close to the normal value almost the whole day. Solar 
disc remains currently spotless and solar activity is expected 
to continue to stay at very low levels for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212222
      Darwin               5   2-112212
      Townsville           9   2-323222
      Learmonth            6   -2212222
      Camden               5   12212221
      Canberra             5   1221222-
      Hobart               5   12212211
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0010 0112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     3    Quiet 
26 Jan     3    Quiet 
27 Jan     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was quiet for the last 24 hrs. 
The geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet 
levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E layers were observed at 
several low and mid latitude stations mainly during the local 
day time today. Relatively weaker sporadic E-layers were also 
observed on high latitudes around the same time. These Es 
layers sometimes partly and sometimes fully blanketed the 
F-regions and may have caused communication difficulties 
using F-regions. Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions 
were observed on low latitudes during the local day today, 
possibly due to a weak ionosphere. This behaviour of the 
ionosphere may show up at times for the next few days. 
Otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Jan     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day with
      some periods of MUF depressions,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    -3    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jan    -3    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan    -3    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were 
observed across many stations in Aus/NZ regions, may 
have caused communication difficulties using F-regions 
today mainly during the local day hours. HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    49400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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