[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 24 10:26:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low levels
today as well. The solar wind speed remained between 400 and
430 km/s for most part of the UT day today. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
close to the normal value almost the whole day. Solar disc
remains currently spotless and solar activity is expected to
continue to stay at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 5 11222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Camden 6 11222222
Canberra 5 11222212
Hobart 5 11221212
Casey(Ant) 11 33422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 3 Quiet
25 Jan 3 Quiet
26 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was quiet for the last 24 hrs.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were
observed on low latitudes during the local day today, possibly
due to a weak ionosphere. This behaviour of the ionosphere
may show up at times for the next few days. Otherwise HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most
locations over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
25 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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