[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 27 10:13:47 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very
low levels today as well. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 490 km/s to 440 km/s between
0000UT and 2300UT today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close
to the normal value almost the whole day with some minor
fluctuations (upto around +/-4nT) on both sides of the
normal value today. Solar disc continues to remain spotless
and solar activity is expected to continue to stay at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22123222
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 7 22123212
Camden 6 22123121
Canberra 6 21123121
Hobart 7 22123221
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2432 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 5 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated periods of slightly enhanced geomagnetic
activity levels were observed today at some stations due to
a high speed solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to stay at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E layers were observed at
several low and some mid latitude stations mainly during the
local day time today. These Es layers sometimes partly and
sometimes fully blanketed the F-regions and caused communication
difficulties using F-regions. Periods of minor to mild MUF
depressions were observed on low latitudes during first half
of the local day today, possibly due to a weak ionosphere.
This behaviour of the ionosphere may show up at times for
the next few days. Otherwise HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
period of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -3 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to strong sporadic E-layers, that were
observed across some stations in Aus/NZ regions, caused
communication difficulties using F-regions today mainly
during the local day hours. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal across Aus/NZ regions for the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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