[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 28 10:42:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity increased from 350km/s at 1400UT to be ~450km/s
at the time of this report. Bz increased in magnitude and fluctuated
between +/-10nT with some notable southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 11212232
Darwin 7 21112233
Townsville 11 22222343
Learmonth 3 11111121
Camden 7 11112233
Canberra 8 11112342
Hobart 9 11321242
Casey(Ant) 13 2-32234-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0110 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions are expected for the next
2 days with isolated Active periods for low to mid latitudes.
Possible Minor Storm activity for high latitudes due to a high
speed coronal hole wind stream. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 01Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
29 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with local day and night depressions for Equatorial/Northern
AUS regions. Mostly normal conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions
with enhanced conditions during local night. Antarctic regions
mostly normal. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24
hours with possible enhanced conditions for mid to high latitudes.
With expected increase in geomagnetic activity over the next
24-48 hours, depressed conditions are expected for 29Feb-01Mar
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 44000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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