[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 27 10:50:39 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 29 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity fell from 400km/s at 0000UT to be ~350km/s at the
time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21121111
Camden 2 10011111
Canberra 3 1101211-
Hobart 3 11012111
Casey(Ant) 10 33332121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1112 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 6 Quiet
28 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Recurrence
patterns suggests Unsettled to Active periods possible for 29Feb
due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Feb Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with local daytime depressions for Equatorial/Northern
AUS regions, with notable sporadic E. Mostly normal conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions for the next 2 days with continued variable depressed
periods for Equatorial and Northern AUS. Possible enhanced conditions
for mid to high latitudes on 29Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 71800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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