[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The ACE spacecraft 
shows the solar wind to have decreased to approximately 570 km/s. 
It is expected to continue to decrease to around 400 km/s. The 
Interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 4nT over 
the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222221
      Darwin               5   21122221
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            7   32222221
      Camden               6   22222221
      Canberra             6   22222221
      Hobart               6   22222221
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--33231
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2333 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Feb     6    Quiet 
19 Feb     3    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Feb    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 10% during the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10% during the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E and night time spread F were observed 
at most locations. Sporadic E formation expected to continue. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 650 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   195000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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