[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 16 10:09:16 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The SOHO spacecraft 
shows a CME commencing around 0942UT 15 February, however appears 
to be due to activity on the backside of the sun. The ACE spacecraft 
shows the solar wind to be approximately 620 km/s at this time 
and will most likely remain elevated today. It is expected to 
decrease to around 400 km/s by the end of day 17 February. The 
Interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 5nT over 
the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22334222
      Darwin               9   22224212
      Townsville          12   22334232
      Learmonth           14   22235322
      Camden              11   22334222
      Canberra            11   22334221
      Hobart              14   33334321
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--34223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart             111   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   2121 3154     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    12    Unsettled 
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Feb     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes today, 
otherwise expect quiet to unsettled conditions today and tomorrow. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder 
HF propagation slightly. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Feb    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E and night time spread F were observed 
at most locations. Sporadic E formation expected to continue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 645 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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