[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind 
speeds continue to be elevated due to a coronal hole solar wind 
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin decreasing today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22223133
      Darwin               8   22123132
      Townsville          11   22233233
      Learmonth           11   32223233
      Camden               8   22223132
      Canberra             8   22223132
      Hobart              10   22323133
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--43233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2232 4322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Feb     6    Quiet 
17 Feb     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Feb     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Occasional night time
      depressions to 30% observed at Darwin and Brisbane.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      observed at some stations 10-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      30% observed at Casey.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb     6    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb     6    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E and night time spread F were
observed at most locations. Depressions in MUFs to 30% are
possible at times at all latitudes. Sporadic E formation
expected to continue. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 638 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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