[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
speed continues to decline. A recurrent coronal hole may increase 
the solar wind speed on the 20th. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Mostly quiet.
Quiet to active levels were observed at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               5   22212111
      Townsville           7   23222221
      Learmonth            5   22212111
      Camden               5   12222021
      Canberra             4   12222011
      Hobart               5   12222111
      Casey(Ant)          13   34432212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3322 3221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     5    Quiet 
19 Feb     5    Quiet 
20 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: A possible increase in geomagnetic activity on the 20th 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. Higher latitudes may experience 
active geomagnetic conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Feb    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed at Niue, recovering after 20
      UT. No data for Vanimo.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 30% observed 01-06 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      30% observed 00-07 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E was observed at most locations.
Sporadic E formation expected to continue. Depressions to 30%
possible at times at all latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 583 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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