[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 7 10:39:45 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds have continued to decline slowly over the past 24
hours down to approximately 360 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to increase again during 9 February as another coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11111221
Darwin 4 21111221
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 6 11111332
Camden 3 01111221
Canberra 2 00101221
Hobart 3 11101221
Casey(Ant) 11 3-322332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
09 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next two
days. Active levels are expected during 9 February as a coronal
hole rotates around into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed
at times at most of the Aus/NZ region stations during the past
24 hours. Sporadic-E is again expected at times across the Aus/NZ
region for 7 February. Mostly near predicted monthly values are
expected for the Aus/NZ region for the next few days, with isolated
depressions of 5-15% possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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