[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 8 10:34:32 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds are expected to increase during 9 February as a coronal
hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22111322
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 7 22111323
Camden 5 22111212
Canberra 5 22100312
Hobart 6 22101322
Casey(Ant) 11 34322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0000 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 5 Quiet
09 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active with storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
10 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods
and storm levels at high latitudes.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 7 February and
is current for interval 9-10 February. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for 8 February. Active levels are expected during
9-10 February as a coronal hole rotates around into a geoeffective
position. Storm levels are possible at high latitudes 9-10 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values
09 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 7 February
and is current for interval 9-10 February. Sporadic-E and/or
Spread-F conditions were observed at times at most of the Aus/NZ
region stations during the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F
are again expected at times across the Aus/NZ region for 8 February.
Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for the Aus/NZ
region for 8 February. Depressions of 10-20% are possible at
times during 9-10 February as the result of an anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 51600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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