[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline slowly over 
the past 24 hours and are presently approximately 410 km/s. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly over the 
next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112221
      Darwin               4   21112211
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   21113221
      Camden               4   11112211
      Canberra             4   12102211
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--22222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3212 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb     6    Quiet 
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
08 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb     5    near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb     5    near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times at some 
of the Aus/NZ region stations during the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E 
is again expected at times across the Aus/NZ region for 6 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 560 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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