[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 5 10:44:50 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the 
sun. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline over the past 
24 hours and are presently approximately 480 km/s. Solar wind 
speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly over the next 
24-48 hours. A faint CME observed by the STEREO spacecraft, most 
likely due to a disappearing solar filament, is not expected 
to be geoffective. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32232222
      Darwin               5   21122212
      Townsville           9   32232222
      Learmonth            8   31132222
      Camden               7   22232221
      Canberra             7   22231221
      Hobart               5   221-----
      Casey(Ant)          13   4--32232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3233 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Feb     6    Quiet 
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-15%.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
06 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
07 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times at most 
of the Australian region stations. Sporadic-E is again expected 
at times across the Aus/NZ region for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 605 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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