[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 4 10:15:23 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the 
sun. A recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective and the associated 
high speed solar wind stream that is presently around 600 km/s. 
Expect the solar wind to remain at this level today (4 Feb) and 
to start to slowly decrease tommorrow. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has fluctuated between 
+/- 5nT over the last 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   23343333
      Darwin              11   22243322
      Townsville          15   23343333
      Learmonth           15   32343333
      Camden              13   23342332
      Canberra            14   23343332
      Hobart              12   233-----
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--43333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             19   4532 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Feb     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect an unsettled level of geomagnetic activity with 
isolated cases of active levels today (4 Feb). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder 
HF propagation slightly. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 10 during local day. 
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 10% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night. 
      Mostly near predicted monthly values for the ,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 10-15% during the UT day.  

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted variable cases of Sporadic E (Es) through out 
the Australian region. Expect Es to continue to be present for 
most of the Australian region for the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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