[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 20 09:36:30 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters are 
elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Darwin               6   22222221
      Townsville          13   33333322
      Learmonth            7   22232221
      Camden               7   22232211
      Canberra             7   22232221
      Hobart               8   22332211
      Casey(Ant)          12   24332321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23   3434 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Aug     6    Quiet 
22 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August and 
is current for interval 18-20 August. Solar wind speed declined 
steadily from 600 to 500 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor fluctuations 
about neutral. The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled at 
low to mid latitudes with active to minor storm periods at high 
latitudes. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions day one, gradually 
declining to generally quiet conditions days two to three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    -5    near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug     0    near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT 
day with variable depressions in the Equatorial/North Australia 
regions due to low solar activity. Periods of disturbance in 
Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect 
these conditions to prevail over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
Note: ACE satellite solar wind data not available at this time.

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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