[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 21 09:24:30 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The present coronal hole
wind stream is now in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 21122000
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 1 11011100
Hobart 3 11122110
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 5 Quiet
22 Aug 4 Quiet
23 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline throughout the
UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained mostly neutral. The geomagnetic field was quiet at low
to mid latitudes with isolated active periods at high latitudes,
tending to quiet later in the day. Expect quiet conditions next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT
day with variable depressions in the Equatorial region due to
low solar activity. Periods of disturbance in Antarctic region
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days with continuing variable depressions mainly local
day in the Equatorial region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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