[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 18 09:29:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed ranged
from 360 to 400 km/s. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to
move into a geoeffective position later on the 18th or the 19th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 31122111
Darwin 5 31122111
Townsville 7 32222221
Learmonth 5 3112210-
Camden 3 21121101
Canberra 3 21121101
Hobart 4 21121211
Casey(Ant) 6 32122111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods later.
19 Aug 16 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods.
20 Aug 10 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-20 August. Expected increase in
geomagnetic activity due to the effects of a high speed wind
stream associated with a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly 15-40% depressed at Vanimo. MUFs at Niue mostly
near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
20-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions at Darwin
to 30% 01-07 and 18-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
11-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
19 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
20 Aug 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30% possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 48500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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