[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 17 09:04:03 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless and the solar wind is at
approximately 360 km/s, normal for this period in the solar cycle.
The solar wind is expect to increase late in the UT day on 18
August due to a recurrent coronal hole. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +5 and -6 nT
over the last 24 hours. Noted a coronal ejection from the east
limb, commencing at approximately 0700 on 15 August, no associated
activity noted. Expect very low solar activity for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Darwin 6 32221112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 22210112
Camden 3 11210112
Canberra 3 01210112
Hobart 3 10210112
Casey(Ant) 8 23321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 6 Quiet
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
19 Aug 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-20 August. Expect today 17 August
to be quiet. Tomorrow expect a increase in solar activity late
in the UT day and to continue to increase on 19 August with isolated
cases of minor storm activity likely due to a high speed solar
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 10% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Aug -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT
day with slight depressions at the equatorial/North Australia
region due to low solar activity. Expect these conditions to
prevail over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 53400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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