[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 23 09:18:35 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. A small spot group (AR0992)
emerged at N12E03. The solar wind and IMF showed evidence of
the arrival of a coronal hole wind stream late in the UT day,
with large IMF fluctuations and an increased total B field and
solar wind density. STEREO data indicates further large fluctuations
in IMF Bz can be expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 7 22221223
Learmonth 4 11110222
Camden 3 11010122
Canberra 3 11010222
Hobart 5 11112222
Casey(Ant) 5 13121121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Apr 12 Unsettled
25 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream is expected to produce mostly Unsettled conditions
23-24 April, with isolated Active periods. Minor storm periods
likely at high latitudes 23-24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for
all regions with MUFs near or above predicted monthly values.
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions 23-24 April may degrade HF
conditions, particularly in the Antarctic regions and S.Aus
however MUFs are expected to remain mostly near predicted
monthly values 23 April in a winter ionospheric response. 24
April may see some mild MUF depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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