[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours, 
expected to continue next 3 days. The solar wind speed is expected 
to increase on 23 April under the influence of a coronal hole 
high speed stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   22111100
      Camden               2   12011101
      Canberra             3   22011101
      Hobart               3   12111111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   2000 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     5    Quiet 
23 Apr    12    Unsettled 
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours, expected to continue 22 April. The arrival of 
a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream on 23 April 
is expected to produce mostly Unsettled conditions 23-24 April, 
with isolated Active periods. Minor storm periods likely at high 
latitudes 23-24 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for 
all regions with MUFs near or above predicted monthly values. 
Similar HF conditions expected 22 April. Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions on 23-24 April may degrade HF conditions on those 
days, particularly in the Antarctic regions and S.Aus however 
MUFs are expected to remain near or marginally above predicted 
monthly values due to a winter-time ionospheric response. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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