[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 21 09:46:28 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity. Very Low conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. Solar wind velocity was 540km/s at 0000UT and dropped 
to 480km/s at the time of this report. The solar wind speed is 
expected to increase in the next 24 hours due to the influence 
of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz ranged between 
+/-3nT with a prolonged southward period between 1330UT-1830UT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111211
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            6   21111322
      Camden               3   21110211
      Canberra             3   21110211
      Hobart               4   21121211
      Casey(Ant)           8   33311211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2211 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. The arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream is expected in the next 24-48 hours. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions are expected for 21Apr with Unsettled 
to Active conditions for 22Apr-23Apr. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours for 
all regions with enhanced conditions during local day for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Similar HF conditions expected for 21Apr. With 
the expected increase in geomagnetic activity in the next 24-48 
hours, isolated depressions expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions, depressed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for 22Apr-23Apr. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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