[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 20 09:49:55 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity. Very Low to Low conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity ranged between 480km/s-580km/s 
over the UT day. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21210111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            4   21210122
      Camden               3   21110111
      Canberra             3   21110111
      Hobart               3   21120111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2321 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     7    Quiet 
21 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours. 
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective 
position from 21Apr onwards bringing Unsettled to Active conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Northern AUS 
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions otherwise for Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions, with isolated disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 
the next 2 days with continued depressions of 10%-20% for Northern 
Australia And Equatorial regions over the next 24 hours. Depressed 
conditions expected for 22Apr due to an expected increase in 
geomagnetic activity in the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 518 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list