[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 24 09:10:37 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. The coronal hole wind stream
which arrived late on 22 April strengthened over the UT day with
solar wind speeds reaching 700km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) showed some large Bz component fluctuations in a
strong total magnetic field with periods of perisitent southwards
IMF ~03-10UT and ~13-15UT. STEREO data indicates relatively stable
IMF conditions on an elevated solar wind speed can be expected
over the next 24 hours (24 Apr). A further coronal hole is expected
to move into geoeffective position 25 Apr raising solar wind
speeds and increasing IMF fluctuations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Unsettled-Active with
Minor Storm periods.
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 20 23534432
Darwin 13 23433322
Townsville 19 33444333
Learmonth 27 33545443
Camden 18 23534332
Canberra 21 23534433
Hobart 20 23534432
Casey(Ant) 20 33434522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0001 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Large Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz fluctuations
asscoiated with a recurrent coronal hole solar wind stream resulted
in mostly Unsettled-Active conditions over the UT day. Two Minor
Storm periods occurred at ~06-08UT and ~14-18UT associated with
periods of persistent southwards IMF Bz. Expect mostly Unsettled
conditions 24 Apr with isolated Active periods. Continuing Minor
Storm periods are likely at high latitudes 24 April. A further
coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity elevated 25 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: An active geomagnetic field resulted in degraded HF
conditions over the UT day, particularly in the Antarctic regions
and S.Aus. MUFs however were mostly near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced, typical of a winter ionospheric response
to geomagnetic activity. There was some variability in MUFs in
the equatorial regions. Mild MUF depressions are expected 24-25
April. Continuing variability in MUFs in the equatorial regions
is also expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list