[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 12 09:30:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed
is also very low (<300 km/s) and the IMF Bz component is stable,
although slightly southward over the last 15 hours. A coronal
hole is expected to move into geoeffective position late on 13
Sep. A solar sector boundary crossing is also expected on or
around 13 Sep increasing solar wind / IMF turbulence.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 5 23201111
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 2 12101001
Hobart 3 11112101
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently quiet. Expected to
remain quiet 12 Sep. A solar sector boundary crossing and coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream are expected to increase
geomagnetic activity from 13 Sep with the most significant
geomagnetic activity expected on 14 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next 1-2 days (12-13 Sep). Spread F conditions possible at
latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F observed at some Southern Australian latitudes
overnight which may degrade HF comms by multipath if re-occurring.
Advisable to check ionograms for station near reflection point
of the HF circuit http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3
N.Aus/Equatorial regions suffered some strong MUF depressions
particularly around noon to early afternoon local time. In the
absence of solar active regions with ionising EUV radiation, the
ionosphere is recovering slowly from previous geomagnetic activity
associated depressions. MUFs are expected to return to monthly
average values over the next 1-2 days. Continuing daytime
depressions in the N/Aus/Equatorial regions possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 21500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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