[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 13 09:40:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disc is currently without active regions and
solar activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind
speed also remains very low (<270 km/s). The Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) Bz component was relatively stable although mildly
Southward for the first half of the UT day. A coronal hole is
expected to move into geoeffective position late on 13 Sep. At
the time of this report, the STEREO-B satellite, situated ~8
hours 'ahead' of Earth in the solar wind had not yet detected
any precursers to a coronal hole
(http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtmL)
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 4 11222002
Camden 1 00111000
Canberra 1 10101000
Hobart 2 11111001
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 5 Quiet
14 Sep 12 Unsettled
15 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently quiet. Expected to
remain quiet 13 Sep. A coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
is expected to increase geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels
on 14 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal 13 Sep.
Mildly degraded HF conditions possible 14 Sep in response to
elevated geomagnetic activity. Spread F conditions possible at
latitudes above ~ 40 degrees overnight. Sporadic E possible at
high latitudes 14 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 3 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region returned to near average
monthly values 12 Sep, expected to remain near monthly average
values next two days (13-14 Sep). Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
may depress MUFs 15 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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