[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 25 08:58:26 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A coronal hole 
positioned in the western solar hemisphere is expected to become 
geoeffective on day one. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112111
      Darwin               5   21122112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   21111211
      Camden               3   10112111
      Canberra             4   12112201
      Hobart               3   11112111
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3321 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    20    active 
26 Oct    20    active 
27 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels throughout 
the UT day. The high-latitude geomagnetic field was quiet to 
unsettled. Conditions remained quiet at other latitudes. A coronal 
hole wind stream onset is anticipated on day one, with active 
conditions expected for the next three days. Storm periods 
possible mainly at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions next three days 
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Oct   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions, 
mainly local day. Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions 
next three days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    63300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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