[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 24 09:25:32 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day. 
A coronal hole is now past central solar meridian and is expected 
to become geoeffective by day two. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32232121
      Darwin               6   31122112
      Townsville           7   32222221
      Learmonth            8   32222230
      Camden               6   22232111
      Canberra             7   31232121
      Hobart               7   22232121
      Casey(Ant)          10   32332131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1100 1233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    12    Unsettled 
25 Oct    20    active 
26 Oct    20    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mainly 
neutral with periods of mild southward bias. The high-latitude 
geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with isolated minor 
storm intervals. The low to mid-latitude geomgnetic field was 
quiet to unsettled. Conditions should remain mostly quiet on 
day one. A high-speed coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated 
late day one to early day two. Geomagnetic conditions are then 
expected to be active, with storm periods possible mainly at 
high latitudes, for the remainder of the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions days two and 
three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Oct    -5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible at low to mid latitudes, 
mainly local day. Disturbances possible at high latitudes days 
two and three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    50800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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